It was a common topic of discussion this off-season: Should Joba Chamberlain be in the starting rotation or in the bullpen? Much of the mainstream media who had not heard of Chamberlain insisted that he was so good in the bullpen that he must stay there in 2008, while most Yankee bloggers saw confining Chamberlain to the bullpen as a crime. Then came the compromise: begin the season in the bullpen, and move him to the starting rotation around mid-June.
Considering his innings cap in 2008, the compromise would seem to work better than either of the other two plans. If nothing else, it would allow for the rest of the bullpen to sort itself out, allowing other young relief options to become comfortable in the major leagues.
So now the questions presents itself: How effective would Chamberlain have to be in the rotation in 2008 to be as effective as he was in the bullpen last season? I will note that this type of analysis is 100% unoriginal, and I'm stealing it essentially from Nate Silver and from Rany Jazayerli (as he applied it to Joakim Soria yesterday). I am simply applying previously done research and analysis to a different subject. Some of the assumptions I will be using are taken from their work. If you would like to skip the process and go right to the results, scroll past the next two paragraphs.
Let's assume that Chamberlain would throw 85 innings out of the bullpen, if he were to pitch exclusively in that role in 2008, and 140 innings out of the rotation if were to pitch exclusively in that role this season (I won't speculate on how they would limit him, but for now I'll assume that they figured out how to do it effectively). Everyone knows that the 7th, 8th, and 9th innings are more crucial/important than the rest. To account for this discrepancy there is a way to importance of any situation, invented by Tom Tango, called Leverage Index. In simple terms, the higher the number, the greater the importance, or leverage, of the situation. An LI of 1 is exactly average, and the typical middle reliever will have an LI of around 1.5-1.6 (for reference, Okajima was at 1.50, Jon Broxton at 1.47, and Scot Shields at 1.57). Last season Chamberlain had an LI of 1.13, but for this exercise I will assume his LI to be 1.60 since he is not your "typical middle reliever". Keeping Leverage Index in mind, Chamberlain's 85 innings out of the bullpen would equate to 136 innings out of the rotation, which is pretty close to the 140 innings that we assumed he would throw out of the rotation.
That takes care of the relative importance of the innings themselves. Now, onto the performance issue. It is blatantly obvious that almost all pitchers will pitch better in the bullpen than in the starting rotation. For evidence of this, look at recent examples such as John Smoltz, Adam Wainwright, or Brett Myers (for Myers, be sure that you are looking only at his relief stats for 2007). But how much will performance suffer when moving from the bullpen to the rotation? According to Nate Silver, we can expect such a pitcher to "have an ERA about 25% higher when pitching in a starting role than when pitching in relief." Most reasonable people will agree that his 0.38 ERA from last season is unsustainable over a full season, so I'll use his fielding independent ERA (xFIP), as calculated by the Hardball Times, as a measure of his effectiveness (look at it as you would ERA). His FIP last season was a stellar 2.55, rating him as arguably the best set-up men in all of baseball, and one of the best closers, if he had filled that role. If we apply the 25% rule to his FIP, his starters ERA translates to 3.19. This number still seems too low, as he would rank #2 among qualified pitchers. Bumping that number to 3.49 moves him to #9 on the list, a more reasonable number (this still seems too good, but I won't further doctor the numbers to make him look at worse as a starter). (I am fully aware that Rany Jazayerli's Baseball Prospectus column is titled "Doctoring the Numbers," I just thought it was the best phrase to use).
Okay, so that's a lot of numbers being thrown out at you. We assume that Chamberlain would have a 2.55 relief ERA in 80 innings out of the bullpen, and calculate that that would be roughly equivalent to a 3.49 ERA in 140 innings as a starter, even taking leverage into account.
Now that we have data and projection to work with, we can see the relative performance necessary in each role to determine which is more valuable to the team. If my vote counts, I say bullpen for ten weeks, 2-3 weeks in the minors and/or long-relief building up arm strength, followed by a move to the rotation.
3.17.2008
3.15.2008
Phew
That was the painful part.... Now that I'm done with the introductory posts outlining the general idea of what I'll be writing about, I can get to the interesting stuff (to me, at least).
In terms of baseball, I'll be writing posts with analysis, sabermetrics, general baseball news, and sometimes just links to articles that I deem blog-worthy. My favorite sites include (for better or for worse): Rive Ave. Blues, Hardball Times, The Book blog, WasWatching, Joe Posnanski's blog, One Baseball and the Reds, The LoHud Yankees Blog, MLB Trade Rumors, Fire Joe Morgan, Statistically Speaking, and a few others.
The amount of college coverage will vary depending on the time of year (march and april will be busy months). I'll mostly write about who got accepted where, random observations from Princeton Review, or about my own college happenings (shoutout to Cornell).
Music and "life" will be the most scarce topics covered here, as the topics are either undefined, uninteresting, or happening randomly.
Hopefully this is the last of rambling, multi-topic posts.
In terms of baseball, I'll be writing posts with analysis, sabermetrics, general baseball news, and sometimes just links to articles that I deem blog-worthy. My favorite sites include (for better or for worse): Rive Ave. Blues, Hardball Times, The Book blog, WasWatching, Joe Posnanski's blog, One Baseball and the Reds, The LoHud Yankees Blog, MLB Trade Rumors, Fire Joe Morgan, Statistically Speaking, and a few others.
The amount of college coverage will vary depending on the time of year (march and april will be busy months). I'll mostly write about who got accepted where, random observations from Princeton Review, or about my own college happenings (shoutout to Cornell).
Music and "life" will be the most scarce topics covered here, as the topics are either undefined, uninteresting, or happening randomly.
Hopefully this is the last of rambling, multi-topic posts.
The Jimi Hendrix Experience
Okay so maybe we're not that good.
I joined the band (name constantly changing) a little over a year ago on a kind of strange night in which I had an impromptu (and drunk) audition. I had been drinking (soda) at a friend's house, and for one reason or another had to go to a different friend's house who lived around the corner. When I got there, a handful of people were sitting in his room, listening to music. After a few minutes they started saying that I should sing for them, since several months earlier I had briefly been the singer for a band called Nothing For Now (which lasted all of one practice). Being in the "altered" state that i was, I agreed to sing for them. Whether it was for ten minutes or two hours I have no idea, but by the end of the night I was part of an existing band that included four of my friends. I guess I did something right.
We soon started prepping for the upcoming battle of the bands by deciding on which songs to play. Fast forward about two months, and we had come in fourth in the contest after playing Jet's "Will you be my girl," The Romantics' "What I like about you," and Matchbox 20's "Bright Lights." Essentially what I remember from that night is being incredibly nervous, sweating uncontrollably, and having a dry mouth for the last two songs.
We played another show last June where we raised $2,000 for the Darfur genocide, and played at our school's first pep rally this past September. At the moment, my friends and I are trying to come up with some good songs to play at this year's battle of the bands. To say that we have not been productive would be an understatement. We'll get something done eventually, it will just take some effort.
I joined the band (name constantly changing) a little over a year ago on a kind of strange night in which I had an impromptu (and drunk) audition. I had been drinking (soda) at a friend's house, and for one reason or another had to go to a different friend's house who lived around the corner. When I got there, a handful of people were sitting in his room, listening to music. After a few minutes they started saying that I should sing for them, since several months earlier I had briefly been the singer for a band called Nothing For Now (which lasted all of one practice). Being in the "altered" state that i was, I agreed to sing for them. Whether it was for ten minutes or two hours I have no idea, but by the end of the night I was part of an existing band that included four of my friends. I guess I did something right.
We soon started prepping for the upcoming battle of the bands by deciding on which songs to play. Fast forward about two months, and we had come in fourth in the contest after playing Jet's "Will you be my girl," The Romantics' "What I like about you," and Matchbox 20's "Bright Lights." Essentially what I remember from that night is being incredibly nervous, sweating uncontrollably, and having a dry mouth for the last two songs.
We played another show last June where we raised $2,000 for the Darfur genocide, and played at our school's first pep rally this past September. At the moment, my friends and I are trying to come up with some good songs to play at this year's battle of the bands. To say that we have not been productive would be an understatement. We'll get something done eventually, it will just take some effort.
The Good Stuff
Baseball. No other sport has created such a close relationship with America's hearts, or with the pens of poets.
My entire life, I've been a baseball fan first, and an everything else fan second. Not once during baseball season did I think about what the Giants or Knicks were up to, but every fall I'd closely follow off-season happenings.
There is baseball that 99% of the world sees, and there is baseball that I, along with several thousand other people, see. I don't consider myself a "pathetic get-a-life loser" who doesn't leave my mothers basement except to attend nerd conventions. I do, however, love devouring (almost) everything involved with baseball in order to further appreciate the game. Whether it is scouting, minor leagues, sabermetrics, or economics, I want to know about it. I'll occasionally use this knowledge to answer questions about the game, but these conversations often go astray. It is difficult to explain certain concepts to people if they don't accept the concepts to begin with. Everyone has their own pre-conceived notions of the game that they learned as they grew up, and this is perfectly fine. But very often, these notions are flat out wrong. It is difficult to change the mind of someone when that person is convinced that they are right and there is no other way. I am a believer in the saying, "foolish consistencies are the hobgoblins of small minds." Everyone with an interest in baseball thinks that they know the game inside and out, and that their view of the game is correct. In fact, there is no one single view of the game that is absolutely correct. I am smart enough to realize that I am only beginning to understand much of the game.
This education started in the fall of 2006, when I was a junior in high school. After finishing Moneyball, I began reading a few sites outside of the team websites, such as Hardball Times, MLB Trade Rumors, MVN's different blogs, etc. These discoveries showed me a new understanding of the game, often through the use of statistical devices that are derided in the mainstream media. I don't know everything there is to know about baseball, but I certainly feel that I know more than anyone I've ever met in person (as of this writing). This is obviously a very general and rambling (it's almost 2 am, gimme a break) chronicling of my interest in baseball, but I'll get to more specific and interesting things soon.
My entire life, I've been a baseball fan first, and an everything else fan second. Not once during baseball season did I think about what the Giants or Knicks were up to, but every fall I'd closely follow off-season happenings.
There is baseball that 99% of the world sees, and there is baseball that I, along with several thousand other people, see. I don't consider myself a "pathetic get-a-life loser" who doesn't leave my mothers basement except to attend nerd conventions. I do, however, love devouring (almost) everything involved with baseball in order to further appreciate the game. Whether it is scouting, minor leagues, sabermetrics, or economics, I want to know about it. I'll occasionally use this knowledge to answer questions about the game, but these conversations often go astray. It is difficult to explain certain concepts to people if they don't accept the concepts to begin with. Everyone has their own pre-conceived notions of the game that they learned as they grew up, and this is perfectly fine. But very often, these notions are flat out wrong. It is difficult to change the mind of someone when that person is convinced that they are right and there is no other way. I am a believer in the saying, "foolish consistencies are the hobgoblins of small minds." Everyone with an interest in baseball thinks that they know the game inside and out, and that their view of the game is correct. In fact, there is no one single view of the game that is absolutely correct. I am smart enough to realize that I am only beginning to understand much of the game.
This education started in the fall of 2006, when I was a junior in high school. After finishing Moneyball, I began reading a few sites outside of the team websites, such as Hardball Times, MLB Trade Rumors, MVN's different blogs, etc. These discoveries showed me a new understanding of the game, often through the use of statistical devices that are derided in the mainstream media. I don't know everything there is to know about baseball, but I certainly feel that I know more than anyone I've ever met in person (as of this writing). This is obviously a very general and rambling (it's almost 2 am, gimme a break) chronicling of my interest in baseball, but I'll get to more specific and interesting things soon.
College
Back on December 19th, I eagerly waited by the computer to learn my fate. That's what college acceptance or rejections are really, or at least that's what they feel like. When a person is accepted, they think their life is made; when a person is rejected, all he or she can say is "fuck _______ university." That's what sucks about being deferred. You can't curse out the college of your dreams because they didn't tell you you're not good enough, but at the same time you can't be happy because they didn't tell you that you are good enough. This situation is commonly diagnosed as confusion-- or more accurately: being a teenager.
Anyway, back to me. An hour of refreshing the page left me exasperated, and I left the computer to watch TV and then eat dinner. When I returned, I quickly opened the website to find the message waiting for me: "Congratulations on your acceptance into Agriculture and Life Sciences at Cornell University!" I probably can't adequately describe the feeling in words, but I assume it was similar to what most people feel when they receive the same decision. As I'm learning over the course of this second semester, one of the biggest perks of acceptance is that falling asleep in class has no real consequences.
It is college-acceptance season over the next few weeks, which, in my opinion, could steal the March Madness title away from college basketball. If you're waiting to hear from the college of your dreams, I'll be pulling for you. Just don't get deferred.
Anyway, back to me. An hour of refreshing the page left me exasperated, and I left the computer to watch TV and then eat dinner. When I returned, I quickly opened the website to find the message waiting for me: "Congratulations on your acceptance into Agriculture and Life Sciences at Cornell University!" I probably can't adequately describe the feeling in words, but I assume it was similar to what most people feel when they receive the same decision. As I'm learning over the course of this second semester, one of the biggest perks of acceptance is that falling asleep in class has no real consequences.
It is college-acceptance season over the next few weeks, which, in my opinion, could steal the March Madness title away from college basketball. If you're waiting to hear from the college of your dreams, I'll be pulling for you. Just don't get deferred.
Welcome
So this is really my first attempt at anything involving public writing, and I don't expect much of an audience. As you might be able to tell from the title and/or description (not sure what's called what at this point), this blog will have a few focuses, none of which are related in any way except that they all involve me. These include: Life, college, and baseball.
It is my dream to become the General Manager of an MLB team, and with the description of this page basically being life, college, and baseball, I figured it might be interesting to see what I can write about my experiences down that path. I don't know how often I'll be writing here, but when I do it will generally be about either baseball or college/school. When it is not about those subjects, it'll be something random or funny that I felt was worth posting.
The next few posts will be outlining what you can expect to see here, and the evolution of my interests (which, incidentally, was an essay topic I had to write about for a college application). I hope I'll enjoy writing, and I hope you'll enjoy reading.
It is my dream to become the General Manager of an MLB team, and with the description of this page basically being life, college, and baseball, I figured it might be interesting to see what I can write about my experiences down that path. I don't know how often I'll be writing here, but when I do it will generally be about either baseball or college/school. When it is not about those subjects, it'll be something random or funny that I felt was worth posting.
The next few posts will be outlining what you can expect to see here, and the evolution of my interests (which, incidentally, was an essay topic I had to write about for a college application). I hope I'll enjoy writing, and I hope you'll enjoy reading.
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